The Retail Rundown: Weekly Protein Recap; CPI Update

Seafood leads protein advertising for a third consecutive week, accounting for nearly 31% of total ad space. Pork follows with nearly 23% and beef makes up 21%. Chicken represents 19% of the advertising share, while eggs capture less than 1%.

The seafood category shows mixed price trends year-over-year (YOY), with fresh cod fillets discounted to $8.37 per pound last week—down 53 cents from the previous year. Prices for catfish and tilapia remained steady YOY, each averaging about $6.60 discounted...

The Retail Rundown: Post-Holiday Slowdown Influences January Spending 

January typically marks a slowdown in consumer spending as households transition from the holiday season to their regular routines.

Early in the month, retailers experience a short-lived boost in sales, driven by replenishment efforts after the holiday food rush. As schools reopen and guests leave, families restock essentials for breakfast, lunch, and weeknight meals.

This restocking coincides with New Year’s resolutions, especially those focused on healthier eating. Consequently, shoppers gravitate toward the perimeter of the stores where fresh items, including produce, proteins, and dairy, are featured. Although retail...

The Retail Rundown: Robust Retail Spending This Holiday Season

Retail spending has been robust this year, with recent data released by the U.S. Census Bureau indicating strong retail sales as the holiday season kicked off in November.

According to the Census Bureau, overall retail sales in November rose 0.7 percent month-over-month (MOM) and increased 3.8 percent year-over-year (YOY) In comparison, October saw gains of 0.5 percent MOM and 2.9 percent YOY.

“Job and wage gains, modest inflation and a heathy balance sheet have led to solid holiday spending," said National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz...

Illex Squid Fishing Season to Open Early in January 2025

The Chamber of Argentine Fishing and Freezing Vessel Owners (CAPA) has requested an early start to the squid fishing season south of the 44° S parallel, proposing an opening date of January 10, 2025. The Council of Argentine Fishing Companies (CEPA) subsequently supported this request on November 7, 2024.

The Federal Fisheries Council (CFP) approved this application on Nov. 14, 2024. The decision to open the season early was backed by positive results achieved from implementing this measure in previous years. This decision has been supported by the National...

ANALYSIS: After a Positive Summer, Argentinian Shrimp Exports Collapse in October

Latest figures from Argentinian customs show a significant drop in exports of muelleri wild shrimp in October. While the volume traded during the summer was at the highest in the last five years, exports collapsed in October at 13,026 MT, representing a 44% decline since September and a 42% decrease in value at $84,938...

The Retail Rundown: Diving into December Deals

With the year-end holidays soon approaching, shoppers are eagerly diving into December deals. Retailers aim to capitalize on the season's spending surge with enticing offers on everything from festive foods to decadent desserts, decor, and other holiday items. 

Consumer spending on winter holidays is projected to hit a record-breaking $902 per person this year, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Prosper Insights & Analytics. This figure marks a $25 increase from 2023 and surpasses the previous record set in 2019 by $16...

The Retail Rundown: Turkey Takes the Spotlight

According to Circana data, fresh whole turkeys were featured at an average discounted price of $1.48 per pound last week, up from $1.27 per pound during the same period last year.

The most popular turkey sizes, 10–15 and 16–24 pounds, averaged $1.34 per pound, compared to $1.00–$1.10 per pound last year. These prices reflect pre-promotion rates and do not account for additional discounts or free turkey offers.

Whole turkeys are often used as loss leaders to increase holiday store...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Countdown Rapidly Winds Down

With Thanksgiving just three weeks away, the holiday rush is fueling retail traffic as shoppers stock up on essentials. This week, turkey promotions account for 3.3 percent of all protein ads, down from 5 percent the previous week. The number of grocery chains featuring turkeys also declined, with 39 chains participating, compared to 49 chains a week earlier.

Despite fewer promotions, fresh whole turkey sales rose week-over-week, reaching $1.3 million last week, up from $909,368 the week prior, according to Circana...

The Retail Rundown: Tuning in to Turkey

Retail promotions for seafood continue to dominate the protein category this week, capturing nearly a third of ad circular space (32 percent). Beef and pork follow, taking up 23 percent and 21.3 percent, respectively. Chicken is up slightly from the previous week at 16 percent. Egg ads held steady at about 3 percent.

Several items were featured at lower prices compared to 2023 last week, with chicken leg quarters averaging $1.55 per pound, 5 cents cheaper than last year. Fresh pork loin prices were down by 2 percent...

The Retail Rundown:  Port Strike Sends Shockwaves Throughout Supply Chain 

The strike at East and Gulf Coast ports officially began once the calendar turned to October, following unsuccessful contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX).

The strike's impact is being felt throughout the supply chain, causing significant disruptions in the flow of goods ahead of the rapidly approaching holiday season. 

In a statement released on Tuesday, USMX stated that its current offer includes a nearly 50% wage increase. In response, ILA said it has rejected USX's offer "because it fails to address...

The Retail Rundown: Going All-Out for Autumn

Fall is just around the corner, with the official start of autumn this Sunday, September 22. As cooler weather sets in and travel plans wind down, grocers are ramping up their offerings of seasonal favorites to align with the change in consumer preferences. 

According to the Expana Retail Activity Index, seafood continues to lead for the fourth week in a row, making up 30% of total protein ads. Beef and pork are close behind, each at around 25%, while chicken accounts for 14%. Eggs represent 2.8% of retail opportunities, and turkey has 2.3%...

The Retail Rundown: September's Seasonal Shifts

Although there are about two weeks left to enjoy summer, many consider the season unofficially over following Labor Day. The retail landscape is starting to reflect this shift, where factors like cooler weather and football season are already influencing consumer demand. 

The frozen/convenience aisles and deli counters benefit from back-to-school needs and provide quick meals for busy households. Circana data indicates that prepared dishes/kits earned $18.1 million in total sales last week, up from $17.7 million the week prior. Over in lunchmeat, fresh packaged turkey retailed at $7.21 discounted, an 18-cent year-over-year decrease.  

ANALYSIS: Fresh Whole Salmon Situation

The farmed salmon index has ticked up slightly through the month of August. Much of this can be attributed to the lack of whole fish in the U.S. market. West Coast Canadian whole fish have been unquoted since the beginning of August.

This has applied upward pricing pressure to the market in some areas; one of which appears to be Eastern Canadian whole fish. Pricing on 12–14-pound fish for example has ticked slightly higher during the month of August. Currently, the Canadian product is observing a premium over both...

ANALYSIS: Retail Salmon Promotions Up 5.2 Percent 

The Chilean fresh fillet market remained flat on 3-4s for the 4^th week in a row. In a marketplace that can at times be very volatile, the fresh Chilean fillet market has been relatively stable since the beginning of July, falling in total $0.15 over the course of a 7 week period.  

When looking at the 3-year average, the market is currently 7.6 percent lower, but on the 5-year average, the market is higher, up 4.5 percent.

Furthermore, when looking at the...

ANALYSIS: YTD (January-June) Frozen Tuna Imports Up 9.6%, with Strong Performance from Vietnam

Frozen tuna fillet imports for the first half of 2024 (YTD January-June) reached 39.38 million pounds, reflecting a 9.6% year-over-year increase. However, this figure is 8.91% below the 5-year YTD average. It's important to note that while total imports in 2023 totaled 81.23 million pounds (third highest record volume), this was following an all-time record-high import volume of 105.49 million pounds in 2022.

Historically, Indonesia has led the market share for imported frozen tuna fillets, and this...

ANALYSIS: Pangasius Imports Outweigh Tilapia

With U.S. import data reporting through June 2024, the first half of the year has recorded panagius outweighing tilapia in frozen fillet import volumes into the country. Historically tilapia largely outweighs pangasius, however, this trend reversal has become a more common occurrence as 2021 and 2022 also marked higher pangasius volumes for the same timeframe.

Contributing to the supply constraints on tilapia this year was a shortage of raw materials driven by unusual weather events that can increase mortality rates for smaller fish. Major producing areas of...

ANALYSIS: Expectations for Anchovy Fisheries in Europe, Peru, and Argentina in 2025

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)reported that in 2019, 6 million tonnes of anchovy were caught globally. The primary anchovy producers are Peru and Chile, which account for approximately 74% of the world's anchovy catches, followed by Japan at 15.49% and Europe at 9.91%...

The Retail Rundown: Seasonal Trends for Ribs vs. Hams

With Christmas just two weeks away, this week’s retail rundown takes a closer look at two traditional holiday centerpieces: rib roasts and hams. These festive favorites have followed differing paths in the wholesale markets this year, potentially influencing their retail performance in the lead-up to the year-end celebrations.

The wholesale rib market began its seasonal ascent in the third quarter, gaining traction in early August. From August 1 through December 10, prices surged by 42 percent, far surpassing the 5-year average increase of 17 percent for the same period...

ANALYSIS: Canadian Lobster Prices Stabilize Amid Export Slowdown

Canadian live lobster prices have been stabilizing this autumn, following a gradual increase since June. Latest data from Expana shows a market price for live chix exported to Europe standing at 12.18 USD/lb (C+F incoterm) on 5/12/24, which represents a 60% rise since the year-low value of 7.6 USD/lb at the beginning of June...

ANALYSIS: Key Drivers of Norwegian and Chilean Salmon Price Fluctuations

The average price reported by Expana of Norwegian Atlantic salmon whole, FOB Oslo, Norway, 4-5 kg during November 2024, shows an increase of 2.7% in the last three months. However, the price dropped by 9.5% year over year, averaging NOK 74.49 kg. The increase in price in the last three months may be associated with the rise in demand in Europe due to end-of-the-year festivities...

The Retail Rundown: Holiday Features in Full Display

In the final stretch to Thanksgiving, turkey ads dominate protein advertisements this week with 29 percent, up from 11.8 percent the week prior and surpassing pork's 26.4 percent. Seafood ads come in at 20.2 percent, followed by beef at 16.4 percent. Chicken takes 6 percent, while eggs still have less than one percent of retail buying opportunities.

Fresh whole turkeys account for half of all turkey promotions, with frozen turkeys making up 40.5 percent. While turkeys take center stage, the holiday season also lifts demand for cold-weather comfort foods and convenient...

The Retail Rundown: This Year's Thanksgiving Dinner May Cost Less 

This week’s protein promotions spotlight seafood, which makes up 33.1 percent of all ads, with pork following at 25.6 percent and beef at 24.3 percent. Chicken features come in at 13 percent, while turkey ads saw a small increase to 3.8 percent, up from 3.3 percent last week but below the 5 percent seen two weeks prior.

Frozen turkeys make up 27 percent of all turkey ads, up 25.7 percent last week, with prices ranging between $2.79 and $5.00 discounted last week.

According to the Expana Thanksgiving Dinner Index 2024...

The Retail Rundown: Late-Season Push for Grilling Cuts

As October ends, beef and seafood promotions are neck and neck, each occupying about 25 percent of total advertising space. During the final week of "Pork-tober, pork features account for 20.8 percent of buying opportunities, closely followed by chicken at 20.6 percent.

Though the shift from grilling cuts to roasts has been in motion for a few weeks, a forecast of record warmth in parts of the central and eastern U.S. this week offers a last chance for backyard cooking before winter sets in.

This could spur late-season promotions...

The Retail Rundown: Eggs Rule the Roost During Baking Season 

As October reaches its midpoint, many homes are filled with the irresistible aromas of freshly baked goods, marking the onset of the holiday baking season.

This seasonal shift benefits the egg case as eggs find their way into breads, cookies, pastries, pies, and more. Also, more consumers are reaching for hot breakfasts as the weather turns colder, which further boosts egg demand.

Data from Circana shows that the average retail feature price for large, white Grade A eggs averaged $3.72 per dozen last week...

The Retail Rundown: Onwards to October

With October nearing, the shift in retail meat features from grilling cuts to roasts is picking up pace. More households are utilizing their ovens and crockpots, making it prime time for hearty ingredients like chuck roasts and pork shoulders.

Still, warmer weather lingers in some regions. For those with favorable grilling conditions, shoppers may find deals on items like steaks, ribs, and pork chops as retailers work to move any extra inventory. 

This week’s retail buying opportunities show seafood continuing to lead, making up 26.9% of protein advertisements, followed by pork at 24.7%, beef at 21.2%...

The Retail Rundown: Rising Feature Volume for Roasts

This month marks an ideal blend of seasons for the retail sector, as grilling cuts continue to be featured along with autumn favorites like hearty roasts and everything pumpkin. The shift to cooler weather is already being reflected in increased promotions for pork and beef roasts, which have earned a larger share of circular ad space this week. 

In the beef category, roasts now account for 26.4 percent of total ad space, up from 17 percent the previous week. Steak promotions eased to 36.9 percent, a nearly 10-point decline from...

ANALYSIS: Supply Constraints in Frozen Sockeye Salmon Spark Concerns

The frozen sockeye salmon market is currently facing significant challenges, primarily due to supply shortages and rising prices. Although Alaskan landings slightly exceeded preseason forecasts, they still fell short by 20% year-over-year, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADF&G). Additionally, reduced landings have been reported in Canada and the Lower 48 states. Contributing factors include higher water temperatures limiting salmon runs in the Columbia River and landslides disrupting key areas around the Fraser River in Canada. Compounding these issues is the smallest...

The Retail Rundown: Leaping Towards Labor Day

Labor Day weekend, often viewed as the unofficial end of summer, is just two weeks out. Many families are seizing the opportunity for one last vacation, boosting foodservice spending.

For some students, summer break has already concluded, and back-to-school shopping for essentials like breakfast and lunch items is in full swing. Among retailers, Labor Day is recognized as the final major grilling event of the year, marking the last big push to promote barbecue favorites.

Last week, boneless skinless chicken breasts were featured at $4.43 discounted, 18 cents above...

The Retail Rundown: Multiple Factors Fuel Promotions; CPI Update

As we reach mid-August, grocery stores are transitioning their end caps from summer displays to game-day essentials, gearing up for the NFL regular season. At the same time, circulars are packed with barbecue items for the upcoming Labor Day weekend along with back-to-school essentials as some regions are already welcoming students back to class.

This week, seafood continues to dominate, representing about 28% of total protein volume in retail buying opportunities. Pork follows with a 23.4% share, while beef captures...

ANALYSIS: Crab Meat Imports Drop Over 25 Percent in June

After months of higher imports, June 2024 is down significantly for crab meat imports into the U.S. The month is down 31.6 percent as compared to May 2024. However, year-to-date imports continue higher, up 16.5 percent. Outside of 2022, crab meat imports are topping the highest levels seen in recent years. When looking strictly at pasteurized and fresh crab meat products, through June 2024 it’s the second highest volume of imports on record—again behind 2022.

When looking further at the breakdown of...