ANALYSIS: July US Shrimp Inventory Estimated at 376M lbs — Above Trend but Within a Manageable Range

With July imports estimated at 167–169 million lbs on a customs-model basis, end-of-July inventory is projected at approximately 376 million lbs — roughly 5.6% above the pre-pandemic ETS trend line, which serves as a demand-consistent baseline. At the export-seasonal model's midpoint of 183 million lbs, that gap widens to approximately 6.6%. A 5–8% overhang above trend represents a soft supply bias, not a structural imbalance. The July figure is worth contextualizing...
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